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Trade Trends News
16-04-2025
China's General Administration of Customs released data on Monday showing that crude oil imports increased in March compared to the same period last year, while imports of soybeans, coal, iron ore, and unwrought copper declined.
Chinese exports surged in March as manufacturers rushed shipments ahead of new U.S. tariffs. However, the escalating U.S.-China trade tensions have cast a shadow over factory activity and economic growth in the world's second-largest economy.
U.S. President Donald Trump raised tariffs on Chinese goods to historic levels—moves that many economists warn could have far-reaching consequences for global trade flows and business investment.
Key Figures:
·Soybeans: 3.5 million metric tons in March, down 36.8% year-over-year
·Crude Oil: 51.41 million metric tons, up 4.8% YoY
·Unwrought Copper: 467,000 metric tons, down 1.4% YoY
·Coal: 38.73 million metric tons, down 6% YoY
·Iron Ore: 93.97 million metric tons, down 6.7% YoY
·Rare Earths (Exports): 5,666.3 metric tons, up 20.31% YoY
Analyst Insights on Commodities:
1. Crude Oil
Emma Li, Analyst at Vortexa, Singapore
"China's seaborne crude imports rebounded to 10.6 million barrels per day in March—the highest since October 2023—driven largely by record shipments of Iranian crude arriving in Shandong province."
2. Soybeans
Rosa Wang, Analyst at JCI, Shanghai
"Trade war concerns intensified after Trump took office. Meanwhile, a large portion of orders shifted to Brazilian soybeans due to expectations of a bumper harvest. However, delayed harvesting and transportation bottlenecks in Brazil contributed to weak import figures in March."
3. Copper
Adam Williams, Head of Base Metals Research, Fastmarkets, London
"In March, U.S. copper prices surged, at one point exceeding LME prices by over $1,400 per ton. This price gap incentivized copper exports to the U.S. rather than China."
4. Iron Ore
Chu Xinli, Analyst at China Futures, Shanghai
"March imports came in below expectations. Lingering weather-related disruptions from February likely prevented a full recovery."
"We expect April's iron ore imports to return to more normal levels as demand improves and supply constraints ease."
5. Rare Earths
Neha Mukherjee, Senior Analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, London
"Supply disruptions in Myanmar have already destabilized the heavy rare earths market. Now, China's new export controls have heightened risks for over 75% of global medium-to-heavy rare earth production, triggering short-term price volatility."
"While current inventories may cover short-term needs, we estimate they will only last until the first half of 2025. Concerns over delayed exports could drive prices significantly higher."
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