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16-08-2024
Leading Grain Exporting Countries
In the 2023-2024 season, the United States remains the largest and most consistent global grain exporter, holding the top spot since 1960. This year, the U.S. supplied 84 million tons of grain to the world market, accounting for 16.5% of global exports. Russia ranks second with a 12.9% share, exporting 65 million tons. Brazil and Argentina follow, holding 10.7% and 10.2% of the market, respectively.
It's noteworthy that these top four suppliers together account for over half of the global grain exports, meaning any shifts in their markets can significantly impact the global grain market.
Russia's Global Standing
Russia is one of the leading grain producers globally. In the 2023-2024 season, Russia ranks high in the production of several key crops:
· Oats: 2nd place globally with 2.6 million tons, capturing 17.2% of the market;
· Rye: 2nd place with 800,000 tons, holding 14.6%;
· Barley: 2nd place with 10.8 million tons, representing 14.4%;
· Wheat: 4th place with 136.6 million tons, accounting for 11.6%;
· Corn: 9th place with 53 million tons, holding 1.4%;
· Rice: 40th place with 700,000 tons, representing 0.1% of the market.
Russia's significant grain exports solidify its dominant position in the global market. While the global average for grain exports is around 18%, Russia supplies 49% of the world's grain exports, thanks to its high production rates and relatively low domestic consumption.
In the 2023-2024 season, Russia will maintain its leadership in grain exports in several categories:
· Wheat: 1st globally with 53.5 million tons, holding 24.8% of the market;
· Rye: 3rd with 200,000 tons, representing 29.2%;
· Barley: 3rd place with 5.8 million tons, accounting for 20%;
· Oats: 3rd with 200,000 tons, holding 9.5%;
· Corn: 5th place with 5.6 million tons, accounting for 2.8%;
· Rice: 21st place with 100,000 tons, holding 0.2%.
Outlook for Russian Grain Exports
With growing uncertainty surrounding the global supply and demand for grain in 2024, grain prices, especially for wheat, have seen an upward trend. This price increase is unusual for the typical new crop sales season in May, which usually leads to price declines. However, the current pricing levels are still supported by short-term contracts and strong demand from exporters.
Potential in the Indian Market
Reports suggest that India may remove its restrictive import tariffs on wheat, opening the door for Russian wheat to enter the Indian market. However, market participants note that India’s overall import volume may remain modest, potentially not exceeding 5 million tons. Additionally, the removal of import restrictions could be a temporary measure to protect Indian farmers.
Major Grain-Producing Regions in Russia
According to the Unified State Register of Legal Entities, over 13,600 organizations are involved in grain and rice cultivation across 80 regions of Russia. Stavropol boasts the highest number of grain-growing companies, while regions like Rostov, Krasnodar, Stavropol, and Volgograd have the largest number of companies with revenues exceeding 100 million rubles. Additionally, several agricultural producers with different core operations also participate in grain cultivation.
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