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19-07-2023
Why does the world need Ukraine's grain exports?
Ukraine is one of the world's largest exporters of sunflower, corn, wheat and barley.
When Russia invaded in February 2022, its naval vessels blocked Ukrainian ports and intercepted about 20 million tons of grain. This led to a spike in global food prices.
It also threatened the food supply of some Middle Eastern and African countries that rely heavily on Ukrainian grain.
The United Nations has warned that 44 million people in 38 countries are facing "emergency levels of hunger".
Since the food deal was signed in July 2022, world food prices have fallen by about 20%, according to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization.
What grains does Ukraine export?
According to Tendata, from July 2022 to June 2023, the top 10 Ukrainian grain exports (by trade volume) HS codes are 1008290000 (63.76%), 1904101000 (15.23%), 1904109000 (7.07%), 1904201000 (4.36%), 1904209900 (3.13%), and other products.
Where do Ukraine's grain exports go?
The UN says that of all grain exported by Ukraine under the grain agreement:
· 47% went to "high-income countries" such as Spain, Italy and the Netherlands.
· 26% went to "upper-middle-income countries" such as Turkey and China.
· 27% went to "low- and lower-middle-income countries" such as Egypt, Kenya and Sudan.
Let's follow Tendata and take a look at the main exporters of Ukrainian grains in 2022-2023: when calculated by weight only, the top 10 main exporters of Ukrainian grains in the period from July 2022 to June 2023 will be Poland (9.17%), Germany (6.64%), Bulgaria (5.35%), Italy (4.51%), Ukraine (4.51%) and the United Kingdom (4.51%). 4.51%), United Kingdom (4.48%) and other countries.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has criticized Ukraine for not exporting more to developing countries.
But the U.N. says the food deal benefits people around the world because it brings more food products to the global market, which lowers global prices.
The UN says 625,000 tons of food have been shipped from Ukraine under the food deal for humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen.
By 2022, more than half of the wheat grain procured by the UN World Food Program will come from Ukraine.
What are the trends in Ukraine's grain exports in recent years?
According to Tendata's import-export data, Ukrainian grain has been traded from July 2022 to June 2023 with a general downward trend:
How have other Eastern European countries been affected?
At the start of the war, the EU lifted trade restrictions on Ukrainian food exports to member states to help the Ukrainian economy. This led to a surplus of food and other foodstuffs in neighboring Eastern European countries.
Five of those countries - Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria - complained that the influx of cheap Ukrainian food was affecting their farmers' incomes.
The European Union has agreed to limit Ukrainian food exports to those countries by September 15th.
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